国际原油在线直播:全球油气退役费用到2024年将达到420亿美元

原创 tianfa2018  2020-05-27 10:00 

原题目:全世界燃气退伍花费到2024年将做到420亿美金

中石化新闻讯 据油价网今年5月11日休斯敦报导,自肺炎疫情时兴并造成石油价格狂跌至今,能源集团一直在猛砍勘查和生产制造费用预算,但因为基本上沒有唯利是图的投资方法,营运商如今很可能会提升在燃气退伍新项目上的开支。丹麦雷斯塔能源集团(Rystad Energy)估算,到2024年,全世界燃气退伍新项目的成本费将做到420亿美金。假如现阶段的低石油价格沒有显示信息出快速再生的征兆,有着均值25年财产使用寿命的西北欧退伍销售市场到今年的年服务承诺额将会会提高20%。除开迅速完善的财产基本和腐蚀商业服务可行性分析和潜在性使用寿命增加的低石油价格之外,有益的服务协议价钱也将有利于北海市燃气退伍销售市场。

到迄今为止,只能15%的北海市燃气财产早已退伍,但在未来五年内,大家预估北海市均值每一年将有23项财产停工。在这些方面,美国有希望变成引领者,在未来五年内,估算将有近80%的花费用以欧州西北部地区的退伍工作中,次之是丹麦(14%)和荷兰(4%)。该地区在这段时间的拆迁新项目总额估算约为170亿美金。比较之下,英国当期的退伍成本费估算为57亿美金。

雷斯塔能源集团能源服务投资分析师苏米特·亚德夫表明:“长期的低价钱自然环境将会会促进营运商运用较低的合同书价钱,担负财产退伍责任,进而推动西北欧地域的退伍主题活动。”“这也将为承包单位在本来不景气的油气田消费市场出示喜人的机会。”

美国的高市场占有率在挺大水平上能够 归功于其迅速完善的生产制造水准,由于本国近80%的原油和燃气财产早已生产制造了他们超出75%的可运用資源。除此之外,如出一辙的勘查結果、持续提升的管控严苛和长期性的低石油价格自然环境将会会造成营运商在沒有一切唯利是图的市场竞争项目投资的状况下执行其财产损毁责任。

将促进该地域退伍销售市场的一些领跑财产包含美国的布伦特原油油气田、尼尼安油气田和Thistle油气田,及其丹麦的Gyda油气田。壳牌石油公司的布伦特原油新项目将变成迄今为止全世界退伍的较大 单一财产,在未来十年里,仅这一新项目就将花销近30亿美金。尼尼安油气田和Gyda油气田将相互出示使用价值近20亿美金的合同书机遇。

退伍新项目开支的提升将会会限定营运商在勘查、开发设计和提升采收率等别的行业的项目投资室内空间。壳牌石油公司、道达尔公司、雷普索尔企业和Premier石油化工公司等关键石油化工公司预估将在未来五年将北海市地域10%或大量的开支用以燃气财产退伍主题活动。

井的堵漏和废料(P&A) 预估在这段时间将占据退伍成本费的45%上下,次之是服务平台清除,这将占据固定成本的近20%。服务平台井将变成井P&A主题活动的核心一部分,约占废料井数量的65%,其他为深海井。殊不知,在成本费层面,深海井将处在领先水平,由于每口深海井均值舍弃成本费为1100万美金,而每口服务平台井均值舍弃成本费为五百万美金。

假如低石油价格不断到今年底,它将会在促进美国退伍开支层面充分发挥主导作用。近10%的美国水上财产的成本费早已超出了一桶25美元,这将阻拦其使用寿命增加的市场前景,假如低石油价格不断下来,退伍将变成更强的会计挑选。

在2017年石油价格狂跌后,营运商执行了强大的成本费提升对策,因而如今沒有进一步提高成本费和高效率的室内空间,这也将会推动退伍开支。

从总体上,预估将来十年北海市地域将有2500多接头油气井退伍,

国际原油在线直播

在其中1500口坐落于美国。在未来五年,美国大陆架可能清除近30万吨级的顶层主甲板,在其中近50个顶层主甲板可能退伍,清除顶层主甲板的均值一吨花费为5300美金。除此之外,美国海域预估将拆卸近10万吨级的地下工程。与北海市更普遍的发展趋势一致,服务平台井预估将占到井P&A主题活动的近70%。

亚德夫小结道:“尽管北海市营运商急切关心退伍难题,但广泛的低价钱自然环境为减少退伍成本费出示了机遇。比如,在2017年石油价格狂跌以后,钻探机和船舶的日利率降低了30%到40%。大家预估钻探机和船舶的日利率此次也会展现下降趋势,将会会不断到2023年。”

李峻 编译程序自 油价网

全文以下:

Oil & Gas Decommissioning To Total $42 Billion Through 2024

Energy companies have been slashing exploration and production budgets since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold and sent oil prices tumbling, but, with few profitable investment alternatives, operators are now likely to increase spending in decommissioning work. Rystad Energy estimates the total value of the global pool of decommissioning projects that will accumulate through 2024 could reach $42 billion.With an average asset age of 25 years, the Northwest European decommissioning market could grow 20% in annual commitments through 2022 if the current low oil prices don’t show signs of substantial recovery soon. In addition to a rapidly maturing asset base and low oil prices that erode commercial viability and potential life extensions, the North Sea decommissioning market will also be helped by favorable service contract prices.

Only about 15% of North Sea assets have been decommissioned to date, but in the coming five years we expect an average of 23 assets to cease production annually. The UK is poised to lead the way with nearly 80% of total estimated expenditure on Northwest European decommissioning in the next five years, followed by Norway with 14% and Denmark with 4%. The pool of removal projects in the region for that period is estimated at about $17 billion. By comparison, decommissioning costs in the US for the same period are estimated at $5.7 billion.

“A protracted low price environment can potentially motivate operators to leverage low contract prices and commit to their asset retirement obligations, thus spurring decommissioning activity in the Northwest Europe region. This will also provide welcome opportunities for contractors in an otherwise gloomy oilfield services market,” says Sumit Yadev, energy service analyst at Rystad Energy.

The high market share of the UK can be largely attributed to its rapidly maturing production levels, as almost 80% of the country’s oil and gas assets have produced more than 75% of their available resources. Additionally, lackluster exploration results, growing regulatory stringency and a prolonged low oil price environment may lead operators to fulfill their asset retirement obligations in the absence of any lucrative competing investmen
ts.

Some of the leading assets that will drive the decommissioning market in the region include the Brent, Ninian and Thistle fields in the UK and Gyda in Norway. Shell’s Brent project would emerge as the single largest asset ever decommissioned globally, representing an outlay of nearly $3 billion alone over the coming decade. Ninian and Gyda would collectively present contracting opportunities worth nearly $2 billion.

The increased spending on decommissioning may limit the room for operators to invest in other segments such as exploration, development and enhanced oil recovery projects. Leading players such as Shell, Total, Repsol and Premier Oil are expected to assign 10% or more of their North Sea spending in the next five years to decommissioning activities.

Plugging and abandonment (P&A) of wells is expected to make up about 45% of decommissioning costs for the period, followed by platform removals, which account for nearly 20% of the total costs. Platform wells are set to be the dominant segment for well P&A activity, making up about 65% of the total wells to be abandoned, while the rest are subsea wells. However, in terms of costs, subsea wells will take the lead as they cost on average $11 million each to abandon, compared with $5 million for an average platform well.

The low oil prices could play a pivotal role in boosting decommissioning spending in the UK if they persist beyond the end of this year. Nearly 10% of all UK offshore assets have lifting costs above $25 per barrel, which will hamper their life extension prospects and make decommissioning a better financial option if low prices persist.

Operators implemented strong cost optimization measures after the oil price crash of 2014 and therefore have little room for further cost and efficiency gains now, which may also expedite decommissioning spending.

Overall, more than 2,500 oil and gas wells are expected to be decommissioned across the North Sea in the coming decade, of which 1,500 are in the UK. The UKCS will also witness the removal of nearly 300,000 tonnes of topsides in the next five years, with nearly 50 topsides

期货原油项目投资

set to be decommissioned, representing an average topside removal cost of $5,300 per tonne. Additionally, almost 100,000 tonnes of substructures are expected to be removed in UK waters. In line with the broader North Sea trends, platform wells are expected to account for the bulk of the well P&A activity with nearly 70%.

“While decommissioning is becoming a pressing concern for North Sea operators, the prevailing low-price environment presents an opportunity for driving down costs. For instance, after the oil price slump of 2014, rig and vessel rates declined by 30% to 40%. We expect rig and vessel rates to exhibit a downward trend this time as well, with declines likely lasting until 2022,” Yadev concludes.

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