美国原油:EIA预测今明两年美国原油产量将下降

原创 tianfa2018  2020-05-19 09:01 

原题目:EIA预测分析今明两年美国原油生产量将降低

中石化新闻讯 据全球管路5月14日报导,据美国能源情报署(EIA)预估,今年和二零二一年美国原油生产量将降低,由于抵制肺炎疫情扩散的勤奋将再次造成石油产品和石油价格的骤降。EIA在其五月短期内电力能源未来展望(STEO)中预测分析,今年美国原油每日生产量为1,170万桶,二零二一年为1,090万桶。较今年的1220万桶将各自降低五十万桶和130万桶。

标准的西得克萨斯州中质石油(WTI)的现货交易平均价从今年一月的58美元/桶降低到三月的29美元/桶和4月的17美元/桶。石油价格的大幅度下挫早已对英国的勘探主题活动造成了重特大危害。截止2020年3月,除GoM外,美国本土48个州的再用钻探机数量为753台,但三月和4月各自降至738台和572台,为2017年五月至今的最低标准。依据贝克休斯的数据信息显示信息,截止今年就在前几天,陆上钻探机总数为355台,降低48台。

EIA对石油生产量的短期内预测分析分成三个地区:不包括GoM的48个州(今年石油生产量的81%)、GpM(15%)和阿拉斯加犬(4%)。美国原油生产量的预估转变,大多数出現在除GoM生产量之外的48个州,由于GoM和阿拉斯加犬的新项目通常有不一样的开发设计时刻表,对短期内价钱转变不特别敏感。

一般 状况下,石油价格的转变会造成英国48个州的石油生产量在大概6个月后产生变化。殊不知,现阶段的市场现状将会不容易遵照这类关联,由于很多制造商早已公布大幅度减少资本性支出和钻井队水准,并方案减少生产量。近期WTI价钱的绝大多数转变将再次危害2020年晚点时期和二零二一年全年度的生产制造。EIA预测分析二零二一年美国原油出产量将降低80万桶,这将是有纪录至今美国原油生产量的较大 本年度减幅。

EIA预测分析,今年和二零二一年,GoM生产量将维持相对性稳定,每日190万桶,与今年的均值生产量基本上差不多。除此之外,EIA预估今年和二零二一年不容易撤销已公布的GoM新项目。EIA预测分析,今年阿拉斯加犬的石油每日生产量将维持在46万桶,二零二一年将略微提升。

EIA的石油生产量预测分析十分不确定性,由于肺炎疫情减轻对策的危害仍在持续演化,并从而造成经济发展危害。除此之外,石油输出国组织opec理事国和其他合作方國家公布,到2023年将大幅度限产。假如限产足以完成,将危害石油价格和美国石油生产的国家的决策。

郝芬 译自 全球管路

全文以下:

EIA forecasts US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US crude oil production to fall in 2020 and 2021 as efforts to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue to result in a steep drop in demand for petroleum products and crude oil prices. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will average 11.7 million bpd in 2020 and 10.9 million bpd in 2021. These levels would be 0.5 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd, respectively, lower than the 2019 average of 12.2 million bpd.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil average spot price dropped from US$58/bbl in January 2020 to US$29/bbl in March and US$17/bbl in April. This sharp decline in the oil price is already having a significant effect on drilling activity in the US. The number of active drilling rigs in the Lower 48 states, excluding the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM), totalled 753 as of February, but

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it fell to 738 in March and 572 in April, the lowest since May 2016. As of 8 May 2020, the Lower 48 land rig count stood at 355 rigs, according to Baker Hughes data.

EIA’s short-term forecast for crude oil production is separated into three regions: the Lower 48 states excluding GoM (81% of 2019 crude oil production), the GpM (15%), and Alaska (4%). Most of the expected changes in US crude oil production arise in changes in Lower 48 states excluding GoM production because projects in the GoM and Alaska tend to have different development timelines and are less sensitive to near-term price changes.

Typically, crude oil price changes result in changes in Lower 48 US crude oil production after approximately six months. However, current market conditions will likely not follow this relationship as many producers have already announced significant reductions in capital spending and drilling levels, as well as plans to curtail production. Much of the recent changes in the WTI price will continue to affect production later this year and throughout 2021. EIA’s forecast 0.8 million bpd decline in US crude oil production in 2021 would be the largest an

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nual decline in US crude oil production on record.

EIA forecasts GoM production to remain relatively flat, averaging 1.9 million bpd in 2020 and 2021,

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nearly unchanged from its 2019 average. In addition, EIA expects no cancellation in announced GoM projects for 2020 and 2021. EIA forecasts that crude oil production from Alaska will remain at an average of 460 000 bpd in 2020 and that it will increase slightly in 2021.

EIA’s crude oil production forecast is highly uncertain given the still-evolving impacts of the COVID-19 mitigation efforts and the resulting economic effects. In addition, members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other partner countries announced significant production reductions through 2022 which, if realised, would affect oil prices and US producer investment decisions.

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